Metallurgical Coal Market to grow by USD 95.27 Billion (2024-2028), driven by rising steel demand, with AI driving market transformation – Technavio

NEW YORK, Dec. 6, 2024 /PRNewswire/ — Report with the AI impact on market trends – The global metallurgical coal market  size is estimated to grow by USD 95.27 billion from 2024-2028, according to Technavio. The market is estimated to grow at a CAGR of over 4.77%  during the forecast period. Increasing demand for steel is driving market growth, with a trend towards increase in number of smart city projects. However, volatility in prices of metallurgical coal  poses a challenge. Key market players include Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc., Anglo American plc, Arch Resources Inc., ARLP, Bharat Coking Coal Ltd., BHP Group plc, China Shenhua Energy Co. Ltd., Coal India Ltd., CONSOL Energy Inc., Coronado Resources Inc., EVRAZ Plc, Glencore Plc, Harman Fuels LLC, Peabody Energy Corp., Prairie State Energy Campus, Shanxi Coking Coal Xishan Coal and Electricity Co Ltd., Teck Resources Ltd., Warrior Met Coal Inc., and Whitehaven Coal Ltd..

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Key Market Trends Fueling Growth

The global smart city market is experiencing significant growth, with an anticipated Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of over 22% according to Technavio analysis. Smart cities utilize digital technology to optimize resource usage and enhance productivity and well-being. Infrastructure development, including roads, residential areas, and community facilities, is a key focus. Steel is essential for constructing these structures, making it a vital component in the growth of smart cities. As metallurgical coal is a primary input in steel production, the expansion of smart cities is expected to boost metallurgical coal consumption for steelmaking. The European Innovation Partnership on Smart Cities and Communities, backed by the European Commission, is a significant market driver, aiming to create a European smart city market and improve livability. These developments underscore the importance of metallurgical coal in the global infrastructure sector, positioning it for continued growth in the forecast period. 

Metallurgical coal, a crucial component in steelmaking, is currently in focus due to its petrographic properties and carbonization process. Coal’s thermal maturity, carbon content, and fossil carbon structure impact its utilization as an energy source or household fuel. Coal properties, such as coking properties, mesophase, pyrolysis, thermosolvolysis, and fluidity, influence coal macerals and chemical composition, determining coal rank. Coal extraction and blending techniques are essential for industrial processes, including coal-fired boilers and coke formation in blast furnaces. Metallurgical and thermal coal reserves are essential for power generation, but ESG risks, carbon footprint, greenhouse gas emissions, air pollution, and respiratory illnesses are growing concerns. Understanding coal deposits and their reserves is vital for the industry’s sustainable growth. Carbon content, anthracite, and coal rank are significant factors in evaluating coal’s suitability for various applications. The coal industry must address these challenges through innovative industrial processes and ESG initiatives to meet the evolving market demands. 

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Market Challenges

• Metallurgical coal is an essential resource in steel production, as it is used to create coke. The cost of metallurgical coal is influenced by global demand for iron and steel, making it more expensive than thermal coal. Prices for metallurgical coal are volatile due to macroeconomic factors, including global steel demand and trading policies of major consumers like China. For instance, India, the world’s second-largest crude steel producer and a significant importer of coking coal, experienced a 49% increase in coking coal prices between May and November 2023. These fluctuations make the market unreliable, with prices reaching as high as USD365 per ton in October 2023. Despite predictions of falling prices, the value of Australia’s metallurgical coal exports is expected to decrease due to these price fluctuations. The volatility of metallurgical coal prices acts as a barrier to market growth.
• Metallurgical coal, including bituminous, sub-bituminous, lignite, and coking coal, plays a crucial role in industries like steelmaking and electricity generation. Coking coal’s primary use is in steel production, where it transforms into carbon-rich coke during the coking process, essential for iron ore to produce pig iron in the steelmaking process. However, challenges persist. Coal quality factors like caking ability, ash content, volatile matter, sulfur, and phosphorus impact coke production efficiency and steel quality. In electricity generation, non-coking coal is used, but its heating process requires careful consideration due to its lower heating value and higher ash content. Coal classification, based on vitrinite content, helps determine coal’s suitability for various uses. Coking coals have high vitrinite content, while non-coking coals have low vitrinity. Metallurgical coke production relies on coal’s caking property and plasticity. The steel industry and thermal power plants face a demand-supply gap due to depleting coal reserves and increasing environmental concerns. Coal blending and characterization, including coal washing and coking index determination, are essential to optimize coal usage and improve product quality. Additionally, metallurgical coal is used in producing ferro-chromium, ferro-manganese, carbon electrodes, pesticides, chemical products, carbon fibers, and medicines. The challenges in the metallurgical coal market include ensuring consistent coal quality, managing the supply chain, and addressing environmental concerns.

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Segment Overview 

This metallurgical coal market report extensively covers market segmentation by

1. Application 
• 1.1 Steel making
• 1.2 Non-steel making
2. Type 
• 2.1 Hard coking coals
• 2.2 Semi-soft coking coals
• 2.3 Pulverized coal injection
3. Geography 
• 3.1 APAC
• 3.2 North America
• 3.3 Europe
• 3.4 Middle East and Africa
• 3.5 South America

1.1 Steel making-  Metallurgical coal plays a crucial role in the steelmaking industry, primarily used for coke production in the Blast Furnace-Basic Oxygen Furnace (BF-BOF) and Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) processes. While BF-BOF requires larger volumes of metallurgical coal, EAF uses lower amounts. In 2020, the BF-BOF process was the dominant steel production method, with world crude steel output reaching 145.5 million tons (Mt) in November 2023, a 3.3% increase from the previous year. This growth is driven by the rising global demand for steel, particularly in emerging economies like China and India, which are among the largest steel producers. Urbanization, infrastructure development, and the construction of new smart city projects further fuel this demand. Additionally, the coking process produces byproducts such as coal tar and benzol, which have stable demand in various industries. New steel plants are being established globally to meet this rising demand, further increasing the need for metallurgical coal. According to the International Energy Agency, global coal demand reached a record 8.3 billion tons in 2022, driven by its availability and affordability compared to other energy sources. These factors collectively contribute to the growth of the metallurgical coal market during the forecast period.

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Research Analysis

Metallurgical coal, also known as coking coal, is a type of coal with high carbon content and caking ability essential for steelmaking. The world’s largest metallurgical coal reserves are found in countries like Australia, China, India, and the United States. Metallurgical coal is primarily used in the production of coke for blast furnaces in the steelmaking process. Coke is produced by heating metallurgical coal in the absence of air to drive off volatile impurities, leaving behind a solid carbon-rich material. Metallurgical coal’s high carbon footprint and air pollution make it a significant contributor to greenhouse gas emissions and respiratory illnesses. ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) risks associated with metallurgical coal mining and usage are increasingly becoming a concern. Metallurgical coal is used extensively in power generation, but its use is being phased out in favor of cleaner alternatives like natural gas and renewable energy sources. Thermal coal, on the other hand, is used primarily for electricity generation and household heating. The carbon content of thermal coal is lower than that of metallurgical coal, making it less suitable for steelmaking. Coal types include anthracite, bituminous coal, sub-bituminous coal, and lignite. Iron ore, pig iron, and various alloys like ferro-chromium and ferro-manganese are produced using metallurgical coal in the steelmaking process.

Market Research Overview

Metallurgical coal, also known as met coal, is a type of coal with high coking properties used primarily in steelmaking. It contains a higher carbon content than thermal coal, which is used for power generation and household heating. The world’s largest coal reserves include metallurgical coal deposits in countries like China, Australia, India, and the United States. Metallurgical coal’s primary use is in the steel industry, where it is transformed into coke in blast furnaces. Coke is essential for iron ore reduction in the steelmaking process, producing pig iron, which is then converted into steel. Metallurgical coal’s carbon content, caking ability, and other properties are crucial for the successful production of coke. ESG risks, including carbon footprint and air pollution, are significant concerns for the metallurgical coal market. Greenhouse gas emissions from coal combustion contribute to climate change, while air pollution from coal mining and processing can lead to respiratory illnesses. The metallurgical coal market is also influenced by factors like coal quality, coal classification, and coal utilization. Coal quality is determined by properties like carbon content, ash content, volatile matter, sulfur, and phosphorus. Coal classification systems like the ASTM and the International Coal and Coke Classification System help standardize the assessment of coal quality. Coal utilization includes various applications, such as electricity generation, household heating, anaerobic heating, and the production of carbon fibers, medicines, and chemical products. The steel industry and thermal power plants are significant consumers of metallurgical coal. The metallurgical coal market is influenced by various processes like carbonization, thermal maturity, and coal characterization. Carbonization is the process of heating coal in the absence of air to produce coke and coal tar. Thermal maturity refers to the degree of coal’s transformation from a plant to a solid fuel due to heat and pressure. Coal characterization involves analyzing the coal’s chemical composition, coal macerals, and coal rank to determine its suitability for specific applications. Coal extraction techniques include coal washing, which separates coal from impurities like rock, clay, and other minerals. Coal blending techniques involve mixing different types of coal to improve the overall quality and reduce impurities. The metallurgical coal market’s demand-supply gap can impact prices and availability. Factors like coal reserves, coal production, and coal washing capacity can influence the supply side, while demand from the steel industry and thermal power plants can impact the demand side. The metallurgical coal market’s future outlook is influenced by various factors, including technological advancements, environmental regulations, and geopolitical risks. Technological advancements like the Corex process, which uses natural gas instead of coal to produce direct-reduced iron (DRI), could reduce the demand for metallurgical coal in the steel industry. Environmental regulations aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution could increase the cost of producing and using metallurgical coal. Geopolitical risks, such as supply disruptions from major coal-producing countries, could impact the availability and price of metallurgical coal. The metallurgical coal market’s future also depends on the development and adoption of alternative energy sources and technologies. Renewable energy sources like wind, solar, and hydroelectric power are becoming increasingly cost-competitive with coal-fired power generation. Carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technologies could help reduce the carbon footprint of the steel industry and thermal power plants. In conclusion, the metallurgical coal market is a complex and dynamic system influenced by various factors, including coal reserves, coal quality, steel industry demand, environmental regulations, and technological advancements. Understanding these factors is essential for stakeholders in the metallurgical coal market to make informed decisions and navigate the challenges and opportunities of this industry.

Table of Contents:

1 Executive Summary
2 Market Landscape
3 Market Sizing
4 Historic Market Size
5 Five Forces Analysis
6 Market Segmentation

• Application

• Steel Making
• Non-steel Making

• Hard Coking Coals
• Semi-soft Coking Coals
• Pulverized Coal Injection

• APAC
• North America
• Europe
• Middle East And Africa
• South America

7 Customer Landscape
8 Geographic Landscape
9 Drivers, Challenges, and Trends
10 Company Landscape
11 Company Analysis
12 Appendix

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SOURCE Technavio